Monthly Intelligence Report June 2025

This month’s issue of the Monthly Intelligence Report covers incidents that took place between May 1 - 31, 2025, in three focus regions:

• West Africa

• Western Indian Ocean (including the Persian Gulf)

• South East Asia

Focus topic: India-Pakistan – three markers for the future

This month, we are looking at the increase in tensions and limited strikes across the line of control border between India and Pakistan in April and May. These raised the spectre of further escalation and a wider conflict that could spread from the immediate contested area. Recent events offer three markers for how similar incidents in the future are likely to play out, and how the maritime environment might be affected.

In addition, the report provides a brief update on the maritime implications of the war in Ukraine.

This month's risk and threat assessment

In the report's assessment, the main incidents are put into a broader context to highlight current threat levels and potential changes for maritime operations. Moreover, the report includes forecasts that cover the main concerns in the coming weeks.