Monthly Intelligence Report July 2025

This month’s issue of the Monthly Intelligence Report covers incidents that took place between June 1 - 30, 2025, in three focus regions:

• West Africa

• Western Indian Ocean (including the Persian Gulf)

• South East Asia

Focus topic: What now for Iran? Scenarios and maritime implications

This month, we are taking a look at the uncertain future of Iran following recent military conflicts, particularly focusing on two potential scenarios: economic rebuilding and nuclear deterrence. It highlights the strategic defeats Iran has faced, the implications for its national security and regional relations as well as the potential impacts on commercial shipping.

In addition, the report provides a brief update on the maritime implications of the war in Ukraine.

This month's risk and threat assessment

In the report's assessment, the main incidents are put into a broader context to highlight current threat levels and potential changes for maritime operations. Moreover, the report includes forecasts that cover the main concerns in the coming weeks.