Shipping operations in the northern Black Sea has been hampered by local weather conditions during the winter months. This has affected military operations as well, which poses an interesting question: has the winter weather decreased the security threats to shipping?

The full year of 2023 saw a nearly 17% increase in the number of recorded incidents in the Black Sea compared with 2022.

Evidence collected by the Risk Intelligence team on the LandRisk Logistics System shows a 45% rise in activism incidents affecting the supply chain in 2023 compared to the previous year. Reflecting on those incidents highlights the vulnerability of businesses unprepared for potential outbreaks of social and political discontent.

2023 was a year of severe social unrest, marked by large protest movements, riots, wide-reaching strike actions and social disobedience.

Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland for maritime access to the Gulf of Aden is already causing regional ripples and Somalia’s opposition is sparking regional concerns.

Ethiopia recently announced it had signed an agreement with Somaliland for the lease of Berbera port. So far, it appears the terms include a 20-year lease of a several kilometres long stretch of coast around Berbera port, the freedom to engage in economic activity in that zone, and the presence of an Ethiopian military component around the port.

On 6 January 2024, a suspicious drug smuggling vessel was sabotaged resulting in the disappearance of five Senegalese commandos who were inspecting the vessel. This incident highlights once again that the notorious ‘Highway 10’ (South America to West Africa) is a route that is still active in regard to cocaine trafficking. This resurgence of the route will test West Africa`s resilience and can potentially reshape cocaine imports into Europe.

Several West African countries have been deemed as emerging cocaine hotspots by the UNODC. Countries like Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, Senegal have been locations where international crime syndicates have expanded and established a transit station of drugs destined for the European market.

The Taiwanese Presidential Election is set to be held on 13 January 2024 with three presidential candidates who have been nominated by the major parties. Given the different perspectives on cross-strait relations, this election will be an important one for the region as it will affect future maritime security in the Taiwan Strait.

The political landscape in Taiwan is primarily characterised by a division between two major parties: the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT). The DPP generally leans towards advocating for Taiwanese autonomy, promoting Taiwanese identity, and maintaining a sceptical stance towards China.

Local weather conditions are likely to influence the events of the coming weeks, and months – though to varying degrees. This for both commercial maritime and military operations. This may, therefore, lead to additional perils to operating in the Black Sea, if intensity both in vessel traffic and military operations occur. However, the only truly predictable factor, is the unpredictability of the actors involved.

With recent global attention shifting towards the situation in Israel and Gaza, this should not be at the expense of less focus on the continuing war in Ukraine, where Russian forces continue to target and attack Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

The deteriorating regional geopolitical context since the Hamas attack on 7 October has highlighted the vulnerability of port facilities, offshore gas operations and shipping to ballistic threats from missiles, rockets, and drones.

Israel, engaged in a complex conflict in Gaza, must protect itself from the artillery and ballistic threat of Hezbollah on its northern and north-eastern flanks, in the south with Hamas, and in the Red Sea from the Houthi ballistic threat that is targeting the Gulf of Aqaba area. Israel relies mainly on its Iron Dome system, and its naval version at sea, to counter this threat.

Iran is pursuing contradictory priorities: preserving its proxy network and preserving its reputation of reliability, which implies an active hostility to Israel but still short of a wider war that it does not want.

A month after the 7 October attack by Hamas against Israel, speculation about Iran’s role in the current crisis is rife, as the Iranian government has been tight-lipped about its intentions.

Although injuries to crew as a result of vessel boardings in these straits are rare, there was a noticeable increase in the levels of violence perpetrated by armed robbers during September and October.

The Straits of Malacca and Singapore experienced a significant decrease in the number of reported vessel boardings in September. But this decrease was both short-lived and coincided with a troubling increase in the level of armed boardings …

Recent incidents in which legitimate road freight transport actors were used to facilitate the irregular entry of migrants into European countries have brought back the question of migration at the forefront of the industry’s concerns.

As data indicate a rise in secondary movements throughout parts of Western Europe in 2023, logistics operators ought to be aware of this threat and the risks it carries.

The potential sabotage of the gas pipeline that links Finland and Estonia has once again raised the issue of how vulnerable underwater critical infrastructure is. The variety of ways of causing damage to this infrastructure and the lack of adequate security is a security liability in potential hybrid warfare scenarios.

The recent rupture in the Balticconnector gas pipeline has once again shed light on the security vulnerabilities of underwater critical infrastructure. Just a year after the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 underwater blasts that caused the spillage of the remaining gas from the otherwise non-operational pipelines…

Violence resumes between Hamas and Israel following Hamas’ surprise attack, which was likely intended to upset normalisation talks with Arab governments. The intensifying violence is expected to remain concentrated around Gaza.

On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched an assault on Israel, targeting civilian and military targets indiscriminately and resulting in a large number of casualties.

Contemporary maritime transportation relies heavily on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) for accurate navigation, but these systems are vulnerable to spoofing attacks. Recent incidents have shown that even low-cost equipment can execute spoofing attacks. Russian cargo vessels are using GNSS spoofing to evade sanctions. Countermeasures exist, but complete protection remains impossible.

Contemporary maritime transportation heavily depends on accurate navigation provided by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS).

Since Russia withdrew from Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in mid-July, exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports have been limited. The UN-backed initiative, reached between Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, facilitated the export of 32.9M metric tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs from the Ukrainian ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny since August 2022.

Recent activity is worth noting on several fronts, not only on the battlefield and the political sphere, but maritime-wise reports of vessels transiting to and from Ukrainian Black Sea ports is also noteworthy, not least given the previous mid-July announcements;

Climate activism has posed a threat to the supply chain for some time now due to the disruption that protests and route blockades can generate. However, right now there are two areas of particular concern – Berlin, Germany and The Hague, Netherlands which have been designated as Activism Hotspots on the Risk Intelligence System.

Climate activists are conducting daily, coordinated protests in these two areas which cause significant localised traffic disruption. This disruption can lead to confrontation between motorists and truck drivers alike.

The opacity and difficulty of understanding the shipping industry provides definite opportunities for smugglers to infiltrate, corrupt and even control the sections of the supply chain that are essential to the routing and distribution of their contraband.

They seek to corrupt key individuals among the many intermediaries and port workers likely to play a role. In this context, the entire supply chain right up to the local authorities is likely to be involved.

North Korea has recently demonstrated it “deadly nuclear counterattack capability” amid ongoing US-ROK joint military exercises meant to show the strength of US extended deterrence.

The rising nuclear tensions in the Korean peninsula represent an element of instability in the geo-maritime space of the East China Sea, affecting countries with special interests in the Northwest Asia-Pacific, such as China, Russia, the United States (US), Japan and South Korea.

With the peak shipping season approaching, logistics operators are advised to remember that the end of the year brings many distinctive challenges, including a much higher threat of falling victim to cargo theft than during the rest of the year.

The dynamics of cargo theft are influenced by many factors, not the least of which is time. In fact, the existing evidence highlights several temporal patterns.

The ongoing truce in Yemen has kept a lid on tensions in the Gulf of Aden where the threat situation is stable. In the Persian Gulf, however, an elevated threat of Iranian actions – which could affect merchant traffic – should be noted.

The truce between the warring factions in Yemen remains in place, despite a lack of recent progress in the ongoing peace talks. There are a number of barriers to further progress, not least the issues of government revenue and the sharing of returns from oil exports.